Thanks to the US presidential election, the total value of crypto assets on prediction markets according to DefiLlama has tripled this year. That growth is curious, however, given that the dominant prediction market with a controlling 73% of the sector’s assets, Polymarket, claims it doesn’t allow US residents.
Polymarket has gained notoriety, not for its unremarkable betting on assorted events, but for its very specific Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris-related markets. Indeed, election wagers on the platform exceeded $1 billion in July alone.
Bloomberg reports US use of Polymarket
Polymarket assures the world that it’s based in the tax haven of Panama and its website ostensibly prohibits US residents.
Indeed, its Terms of Service plain text webpage states that Polymarket betting markets “ARE NOT OFFERED TO PERSONS OR ENTITIES WHO RESIDE IN, ARE CITIZENS OF, ARE LOCATED IN, ARE INCORPORATED IN, OR HAVE A REGISTERED OFFICE IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.”
Statements like this are nothing new. Many offshore crypto markets have falsely claimed to deny access to US residents. For example, BitMEX, FTX, Binance.com, Poloniex, and numerous other exchanges have previously admitted to government officials that they knowingly served US residents while claiming to block the country.
Likewise, according to Bloomberg, many US residents are indeed using Polymarket. “They asked not to be identified for fear of crimping their income from the platform,” reporters explained.
Moreover, the company’s ads have been photographed around Manhattan and the Republican National Convention. Peter Thiel and other Americans contributed to Polymarket’s fundraising.
Countless posts from US residents about their disallowed Polymarket bets are also visible on all major social media platforms.
For its part, Polymarket insists that it is diligently banning US users and enforcing any IP or geolocation thwarting attempts.
No matter, the growth of the prediction market industry continues and, as usual, it’s peaking during the election cycle. If history is any guide, governments will craftily shutter them before they become too much of a political nuisance.
For now, Polymarket is under court’s orders and has promised the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that it will never allow US residents to wager using its platform.
