Ethereum price today trades near $4,102, down 3.3% in the last 24 hours as sellers test the $4,080–$4,100 support zone. The pullback comes after an early-week rejection from $4,260 resistance, while buyers continue to defend the long-term ascending trendline that has guided ETH higher since April. The focus now shifts to whether this structural support can hold amid cooling on-chain flows and new adoption headlines.
Ethereum Price Retests Critical Support Zone
ETH Price Dynamics (Source: TradingView)
On the daily chart, Ethereum remains within its broad uptrend structure, but the latest drop has brought it close to a key decision point. Price is hovering around the 50-day EMA at $4,246 and the 100-day EMA near $3,978, both converging with the multi-month trendline support. Immediate resistance lies at $4,254, with stronger supply between $4,540 and $4,550, where the Supertrend indicator flips bearish.
A sustained close below $4,080 would expose deeper downside targets at $3,900 and $3,540, while holding above the current demand zone could stabilize momentum. RSI readings near neutral levels reflect a cooling phase, though the broader structure still leans constructive as long as the $3,540 support holds.
On-Chain Flows Highlight Continued Outflows
ETH Netflows (Source: Coinglass)
Exchange data from Coinglass shows that Ethereum recorded a $112.45 million net outflow on October 14, signaling moderate accumulation despite volatility. This follows several weeks of mixed exchange activity, with frequent inflows during price rallies and sharp outflows during pullbacks.
While netflows remain negative, analysts note that the trend suggests long-term holders are withdrawing ETH to cold storage, indicating sustained confidence. However, the absence of strong inflow surges also highlights waning speculative demand in the short term. Traders continue to watch whether upcoming institutional catalysts will reignite momentum, particularly as staking participation grows.
Bhutan Anchors National Digital ID on Ethereum
1/ Today, Bhutan celebrates a historic milestone, becoming the first nation to anchor its national digital identity system on Ethereum. 🇧🇹@VitalikButerin and I were honored to join the launch ceremony on behalf of the Ethereum community, graced by His Royal Highness. pic.twitter.com/KA4tOYbsJ4
— Aya Miyaguchi (@AyaMiyagotchi) October 13, 2025
In a major fundamental development, Bhutan has confirmed that its National Digital Identity platform will fully migrate to the Ethereum blockchain by early 2026. The project, initially built with Cardano’s IOG, will now anchor its credentials on Ethereum, allowing citizens to verify personal attributes through decentralized identifiers tied to the network’s validator infrastructure.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin hailed the move as a milestone for public blockchain adoption, emphasizing the empowerment of citizens through self-sovereign digital identity. The development reinforces Ethereum’s growing role in national-scale infrastructure, following recent initiatives involving energy markets, tokenized treasuries, and stablecoin settlements.
Analysts See Fair Value Between $8,000–$10,000
$ETH will catch up with the M2 supply in Q4.
The fair value of Ethereum is $8,000-$10,000 by Q1 2026.
With institutional bidding and staking approval, I think ETH will rally hard. pic.twitter.com/GWhdqetubr
— Ted (@TedPillows) October 13, 2025
Market strategist Ted Pillows reiterated his bullish stance, stating that Ethereum could “catch up with the M2 money supply” in Q4. He projected a fair value between $8,000 and $10,000 by Q1 2026, supported by institutional bidding, staking approval, and liquidity rotation from other layer-1 assets. His post comparing global M2 expansion with ETH’s price performance gained traction among traders who view Ethereum as a macro hedge in a tightening liquidity cycle.
This macro-driven narrative aligns with Ethereum’s long-term Wyckoff accumulation pattern, where each cycle correction has historically preceded sharp recoveries. Should macro liquidity improve into Q4, Ethereum’s alignment with global monetary growth could reignite speculative and institutional demand.
Outlook: Will Ethereum Go Up?
Ethereum’s outlook for mid-October remains cautiously optimistic. The pullback toward the trendline is seen as a natural consolidation phase within the ongoing cycle. On-chain outflows indicate long-term accumulation, and Bhutan’s integration adds a powerful adoption layer to Ethereum’s narrative.
If ETH stabilizes above $4,000, analysts see room for a recovery toward $4,550 and $4,800 in the coming sessions. Losing that threshold, however, would delay the rally and test buyer conviction around $3,540. For now, Ethereum remains a pivotal asset balancing between structural support and renewed global demand.
